“Do not trust the horse, Trojans. Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts.” From Aeneid, Book 2, by Virgil (written 19 BC)

What does the collapse of the Greek economy mean for China?

Trade for China with Greece isn’t significant. According to the…wait for it…“Economic and Commercial Counsellor’s Office of Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Hellenic Republic” trade as of a few years ago was on the upswing:

“Sino-Greek trade volume has risen from US$500 million in 2000 to US$2.02 billion in 2005. There has also been an impressive boom of mutually beneficial cooperation in the service sector. Greek ships transported half of the US$1.4 trillion worth of China’s import and export goods in 2005.  (Source: China Embassy in Greece.)

That same year the US imported $243 billion from China. Greek accounted for 1% of that amount. Decreasing trade with Greece won’t overtly damage China Inc.

Yet in this case the slump in trade is the Trojan Horse, and inside is a Pandora’s Box of apprehension, uncertainty, fear and doubt. In case you missed it in that jumble of metaphors, the collapse of Greece is leading to a slowdown in a number of European economies. That in turn affects confidence in the Americas. That comes together to bring down China’s growth rates.

For those stuck in the mud in Japan’s economy – where 1% growth rate in the first half of 2012 was called a rebound – the decline in China is negligible. Forecasters predict China’s growth rate will decrease from 8.4% per year to 8.2%. That’s enough to set alarm bells ringing.

Yesterday The World Bank issued a report on growth rates across East Asia. To the casual reader, this all seems like great news. Trade is up, poverty is down. There’s even a snappy video with highlights:

Yet like Oracles of old, the newspaper editors have thrown the chicken bones and don’t like what they see:

“Beijing Urged to Cushion Euro Blow”

Front page of The South China Morning Post

The drop in growth by 0.2% is causing alarm that the nation’s economy is contracting. China’s politicians are urging people to “prepare for rainy days,” as Premier Wen Jiabao said the central government should do. Growth will be a bigger priority and most economists expect a return to a range of policy measures, from fiscal and monetary easing to direct stimulus.

Again – what’s the impact of Greece?

In chaos theory, The Butterfly Effect proposes that small changes in one part of a system can cause dramatic changes in another part. One small move leads to many more moves. In an effort to restore equilibrium vast changes may occur.

The name “Butterfly Effect” is from the hypothetical example of a butterfly beating its wings in South America leading to a typhoon in Asia. Small wind currents lead to larger then larger then larger changes.

In Greece, a government employee has her wage reduced 30%. That leads her to putting off the purchase of new clothes. That causes a small boutique to lose sales and close. The distributor has one less customer and finally goes out of business. That leads to cancellation of contracts at factories in China. Soon those garment workers aren’t as busy and some are laid off.

To the world, Greece has provided a gift. Hundreds of thousands of butterflies have been released on the global economy. And the tiny beats of millions of wings are generating an economic typhoon that is heading straight to China. How prepared is the economy for that storm? Everyone is watching.

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. Even if they’re butterflies.

To those who read my blog, you know how frequently I write about social media in China. I was forwarded this article from a colleague in Beijing. It discusses the “me too” nature of China’s social media platforms, and the lack of innovation that will lead to longer term economic problems. (Read more here.)

“The larger problem is existential: The nation that so often reminds the world that it invented printing, paper, gunpowder, and the compass is exceedingly uncomfortable about how far back it has to reach to name its world-beating inventions.”  (Evan Osnos for The New Yorker)

The article is written by Evan Osnos, who is based in China and has been a full-time writer for The New Yorker since 2008. Brilliant writing, Evan!

I heartily recommend you read it – very insightful, and of course, well written!

Saturday 19 May 2012 was much like any other when I got to the Beijing Airport. I was keen to check in, clear immigration and board my flight for home. I took a quick run up the stairs to a rooftop dining area. I wanted to capture the incredible roof-span, but my iPhone camera couldn’t take in the entire structure.

At the same time in another part of the airport cameras were equally busy. Chen Guangcheng was taken by wheelchair to check in to United Airlines Flight #88 from Beijing to Newark, New Jersey. He and his family were issued passports, freed and taken to the airport all in the same morning. Chen didn’t realise his day of freedom finally arrived.

On a personal level this is a great victory. Chen is now free to speak openly about human rights abuses in Mainland China. He is able to pursue advanced studies, and was offered a fellowship in law at New York University. He and his immediate family arrived safe and sound in the US. Given the time zone differences, he arrived in America the same day he left China.

See his first televised press conference here at The Guardian.

On a professional level this may mean the dissident voice of Chen will become ever more remote – especially for those in China. Once offshore dissidents had lost their connections within China and became less influential. It will be interesting to see if social media and the broad uptake of VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) mean some Chinese can remain “in touch”.  (see my earlier article on the use of VPNs in Mainland China.)

Chen’s flight to the USA follows a dramatic escape to the US Embassy in Beijing in the days preceding Hillary Clinton’s state visit to China. That issue soon superseded otherwise important trade talks. Chen was released into hospital care and thanked the US for support, then immediately flip-flopped and asked to go to America. (See my earlier article on Chen and Hillary.)

As he left Beijing Airport, Chen’s blindness would not have allowed him to read the sign above. This is right at the escalators and elevators leading to international departures. He may not have felt that Patriotism, Innovation, Inclusiveness and Spirit all applied to his circumstances.

In the end Chen Guangcheng was allowed to leave Mainland China. He is surrounded by his immediate family, and he arrives into a robust support network ready to smooth his transition. I am happy for him and his family, just as I was happy to return home after a sojourn in China. I wish those that remain in his stead all the best as they continue to support the disenfranchised across China.

I am in Beijing on business and find it difficult to access my social media favourites. Twitter is erratic. Facebook is not available. Some say it’s the wireless access at the Fairmont Hotel. Others say it’s the Great Firewall of China.

Yet here I am in traffic on my way to Kreab Gavin Anderson’s offices in China World Towers. The top of the hour news is that Facebook has priced its IPO (initial public offering) shares at US$38 each. Commentators are saying it’s over-valued. There are likely to be investors from China.

Yet here on the street, few can access Facebook. Those that do use VPN (Virtual Private Networks) available privately for a small fee or in many offices.

China is renowned for blocking access for most citizens to global social media sites. In their place local equivalents have gained traction. There’s no Twitter but Weibo reigns supreme. You can’t get YouTube but you can get Youku. Across the spectrum of social media sites there’s a Chinese equivalent.

For Facebook investors, the premium paid today is done in anticipation of an increase tomorrow. Right now the revenue forecast by Facebook for Greater China is US$0.00. That’s the total estiamte of potential earnings for a nation of 1.2 billion people – most of whome are electronically connected and mad for social media.

For some the investment in Facebook today is a worthwhile bet on the day China opens to outside sites. The citizenry is wired. They already have strong social media habits. There’s an immense amount of time spent daily on similar sites. And of course the IPO has raised awareness. It was the lead story on the local radio station in the taxi today.

Facebook isn’t available “on the streets” in China today. The day it is, expect a tsunami of take-up. That may make the US$38 per share seem relatively affordable.

Until then, I’ll wait to udpate my status until I return to Hong Kong.

With 200 million users, Twitter plays a growing role as a tool in the communications mix for businesses worldwide, and its immediacy and interactive nature can have great impact.

However, Twitter also offers challenges. Management of a productive Twitter stream is time-consuming, and can include unexpected and controversial feedback from audiences due to its interactive nature. In managing a Twitter conversation stream, it is important to remember that as with any form of communication, the content of the message is the key.

My friend (and colleague) in Beijing just started on Twitter this week. Made me remember my first days. Below are outlined some suggested guidelines, to ensure a productive stream that engages and entertains your audiences.

In managing a Twitter conversation stream, it is important to remember that as with any form of communication, the content of the message is the key.

Getting Started on Twitter

-   Remember the technical basics. To run a Twitter stream, you need to first ensure that you understand the technical guidelines. The most essential are:

1. Tweets cannot exceed 140 characters (Twitter counts this for you);
2. Shorten URLs when sharing links, using services such as http://tinyurl.com and http://is.gd;
3. Use hashtags. The # symbol, called a hashtag, is used to mark a keyword or topic in a Tweet, helping them show up more easily in a search. Clicking on a hashtagged word also shows all other Tweets in that category. Hashtagged words that become very popular are often Trending Topics. Don’t over-tag – use no more than two hashtags per Tweet.

-   Always look professional. Ensure that your posts contain no spelling mistakes or grammatical errors. Everyone understands that sometimes spelling mistakes happen, but if they happen frequently it makes you or your company look unprofessional.

-   Finish what you start. If a person or a business is committed to starting a Twitter feed, it must be committed to managing it. This requires dedicated resources – if Twitter is an afterthought for you, your stream will be an afterthought for your audiences.

-   Stay on message. Remember, the Twitter stream is the your voice or that of your business. The same messages apply in communicating your business to your audiences via Twitter as through any other forum – whether it be your website, a press release or a public speech. The challenge is, finding new and interesting ways to express your messages, so that your audiences don’t feel that they are being told the same thing over and over again. Be authentic, genuine and real. In other words, be yourself.

-  Maintain your brand identity. Customize your Twitter account background and colors so that they match your brand identity – this ensures that people do not forget who you are, amidst the constant flow of information, and re-enforces that Twitter is a key aspect of your communications. Also, ensure that you have the right identity in place in setting up. The profile and bio are unique identifiers that describe the subject matter of the account, and the nature of the organization. Dump the default Twitter avatar use a photo of yourself or a suitable image.

-   Stay regular. A Twitter stream is described so because it offers a constant flow of new information and insight. To be effective, you must commit to Tweeting on average at least once but ideally between three to five times per day, as well as acknowledging and responding to feedback from your followers. Spread your tweets throughout the day, rather than posting the all at once, as people check Twitter at different times of the day.

-   Don’t just talk about yourself. Thought leadership is about showing that you understand your subject matter, not just about talking about yourself. Beyond feeding out press releases and other relevant announcements on your business, comment on the market overall and provide links to relevant insightful news article. Report industry, company, world and other news that’s related to your business, together with some commentary. You can link to articles and content posted elsewhere with a summary of why it’s valuable.

-   Interact, interact, interact. Twitter is a community, and you must maintain the relationships that form it. If someone follows you or asks a question, follow them. If they say something nice about you, re-Tweet it – positive testimonials from legitimate third parties are a great way to positively impact perceptions of your business. If they say something negative, follow them anyway so that you can see and possibly react to anything else they may be putting in the public domain about you. Participate in Twitter chats related to your industry or business on a regular basis.

-   Following is just as important as being followed. Twitter is a rich source of information. Media, clients, and a whole range of other influencers say things on Twitter that they could not in a more formal setting. As such, Twitter can offer great insight into who is doing what, among the movers and shakers in the international business community. Also, if your potential followers see that you don’t follow many people back, then they won’t be as willing to follow you in the first place. Follow experts, companies, competitors and leaders in your industry.

This post provides top-line suggestions only. For a thorough review of Twitter techniques, please see the course developed by Mashable, the largest independent online news site dedicated to covering digital culture, social media and technology. It is available here.

Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated cities on the planet. Yet 65% of the country is parkland or open space – much of it vertical!

It isn’t hard to escape Hong Kong without boarding a plane.

Just…take a walk.

When you start to learn Mandarin Chinese, it’s important to find where your teacher is from. Regional accents vary across China, much like the USA. Just ask a Maine lobster man on his first trip to the Louisiana Bayou.

I lived and studied in Normandy, France for a year. The City of Rouen was my home for 12 months. St. Lawrence University chose the location for a number of reasons. One was the purity of its accent.

Interestingly my home in Hunterdon County, New Jersey, was one pocket of  an accent that’s called “General English” or “Standard American English.” 

As a student of languages, I always appreciated the different accents. After a year in France I could pinpoint where people were from by their twang. Parisians were fast and clipped. Like most Southerners, people from the South of France had a slower paced monologue.

In China you can expect the same regional varieties. “Beijing Hua” or “Beijing Speak” has an over-emphasised ‘R’ and speakers jam together sentences as if punctuation never existed. In Guangdong Province there are tonal overlays with Cantonese Chinese – a completely separate language from Mandarin. “Shanghainese” is almost a separate language with a lot of slang and unique pronunciations.

The clearest and most admired accent is “Bei Feng Hua” or “Northern People Speak.” This is used in the far north of the country, like Harbin – China’s northernmost city renowned for its ice sculptures and proximity to North Korea and Russia. My Mandarin teacher was from Harbin and although I haven’t had lessons for a decade I am still complimented on my accent. Amazing!

Recently Michael Stephen Kai Sui (aka Mike Sui), a 27 year old aspiring actor in China, developed a video to showcase all the regional accents. In this amusing clip he plays a dozen different characters. Each speaks with the accent and style of their native province. He even plays an African-American on holiday in Beijing. There is one early swear word that’s not hard to miss.

“It’s important to be brave. Don’t be afraid of losing face. Just practice more,” says Mike Sui.

And in an “only in China” moment today China Daily features Michael in a full page editorial. The article includes some amazing stats – the video has been viewed 5.17 million times, and Michael Stephen Kai Sui has 480,000 followers on Weibo – China’s Twitter equivalent.

Even if you don’t speak Mandarin watch this clip. It is amusing to “hear” all the different accents. And it is amazing to watch the seamless performances as Michael morphs from character to character. (For those whose Mandarin is rusty – or not even present – the video includes English subtitles.)

享受视频！Enjoy the video!

The images are so clear and precise, you’d be one of many to think they are hoaxes. Yet the pictures have been verified – and even Hoax Slayer confirms their authenticity. The practice of rice paddy art started in the town of Inakadate in  Aomori prefecture.

“For nearly 20 years, the town has prided itself as home to Japan’s finest rice crop art, which is created by carefully arranging different colors of rice plants in the field.” Pink Tentacle

The farmers create the murals by planting little purple and yellow-leafed Kodaimai rice along with their local green-leafed Tsugaru, a Roman variety, to create the colored patterns in the time between planting and harvesting in September. From ground level, the designs are invisible. Viewers have to climb nearby towers erected by the village office to get a glimpse of the work.

Rice-paddy art was started in Inakadate in 1993 as a local revitalization project, an idea that grew from meetings of the village committees. The different varieties of rice plants grow alongside each other to create the masterpieces. In the first nine years, the village office workers and local farmers grew a simple design of Mount Iwaki every year. But their ideas grew more complicated and attracted more attention.

Today plans acre created by computer and each “pixel” of coloured rice is precisely planned. The plants are then carefully placed to create stunning murals that reflect the best of old and new. Modern day Thomas the Tank in a field next to an ancient warrior. Coverage of these artworks has been extensive and widespread - The Guardian in the UK featured an overview of how they are planted.

The murals in Inakadate cover 15,000 square meters of paddy fields. Today there are more murals in other prefectures. The images created are truly amazing.

The last image is of fictional warrior Naoe Kanetsugu and his wife, Osen, whose lives are featured on the television series ‘Tenchijin.’ They appear in fields in the town of Yonezawa in the Yamagata prefecture of Japan.

Visiting the area is best in the summer months of June or July – when the images are at their peak. Until then watch to see the images appear in this time-lapse video.

“You think they want to have a trade war? If you are not willing to stand up to China, you will get run over by China, and that’s what’s happened for 20 years,” Mitt Romney – US presidential candidate

With six months to go before the United States elects a new president – or reinstates a sitting president – it’s worth considering what China policy could be expected under a Romney presidency. Mitt Romney is the former Governor of Massachusetts and the former CEO of Bain Capital. He is the “last man standing” in the Republican race and is certain to be endorsed as the party’s candidate at its convention in Tampa Bay in late August. 

Central to Romney’s campaign is his free book: Believe In America: Mitt Romney’s Plan for Jobs and Economic Growth. This outlines a 59 point plan to restore America’s economic health. One core element of that is a confrontational approach to China:

“China presents a broad set of problems that cry out urgently for solutions. It is time to end the Obama administration’s acquiescence to the one-way arrangementsthe Chinese have come to enjoy. We need a fresh and fearless approach to thattrade relationship. Our first priority must be to put on the table all unilateral actions within our power to ensure that the Chinese adhere to existing agreements. Anyone with business experience knows that you can succeed in a negotiation only if youare willing to walk away. If we want the Chinese to play by the rules, we must be willing to say “no more” to a relationship that too often benefits them and harms us. (Page 43)

The threat of sanctions and retaliatory measures signals Romney would be willing to undertake a trade war with China. This is a “go for the votes” heart strings pull that is bound to resonate in jobless blue collar states. Yet to many this is likely to backfire just at a time when China’s markets are slowly opening. During her recent visit, Clinton succeeded in allowing greater banking and auto financing access for American firms in China.

 “Romney’s China Blunder” – The Wall Street Journal editorial page

Talking tough is an election year tactic. Aside from that, Romney usually veered towards free market approaches, especially when leading an aggressive investment firm. The firm he ran – and his family trust – have holdings in Uniview Technologies – a large supplier of video surveillance equipment to the government of China.  This allows central monitoring of universities, hospitals, parks, streets and more.

It may be better for Romney to wait. This quote at the weekend is the most telling:

 “Romney doesn’t want to really engage these issues until he is in office,”  said a senior adviser this weekend.

Solve the following problem:

If X stands for slowing economy…

Trade figures revealed yesterday show a marked decline in China’s exports and imports. Whereas economist predicted double-digit rises for both, growth was paltry. In April exports rose 4.9 per cent and imports rose only 0.3 per cent.

“Most economists agreed that the disappointing data would increase the likelihood of supportive policy measures being announced…” (Today’s South China Morning Post – Business – Page 1)

If Y stands for civil unrest…

On National Public Radio (NPR) in the USA, former Chinese dissident Bob Fu was interviewed on “All Things Considered” after testifying before US Congress. During his testimony he had dialed Chen Guangcheng and translated his request for asylum in America. Later in the NPR interview, Bob Fu said dissent is growing across China.

“Every four minutes in China today somewhere there is a protest. All the signs indicated that China that China is in a transition, a transition that current Beijing leaders do not like but gradually have to accept.” Bob Fu, President, China Aid

 That dissent reached tragic levels yesterday in Yunnan Province. Protesting against the forced demolition of her house by the local council, a woman suicide bomber killed two and injured 13 in Qiaojia county. This is a serious escalation of violent protests. Previous protesters committed suicide or faced jail for their actions. This is the first report of a multiple homicides to demonstrate the plight of the dispossessed.

If Z stands for political change….

China is preparing for political change. The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be convened in autumn. At that a new President will be appointed. All signs are this will be Xi Jinping. The new Premier is poised to be Li Keqiang.

China is trying to ensure a smooth transition, yet the recent cases of Bo Xilai and Chen Guangcheng make that difficult – let alone a slowing economy and nationwide unrest.

Solve the equation:

X (slowing economy) + Y (increasing civil unrest) + Z (political change-over) = ? 

Please post responses to the Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China.