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Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Book Review via Delaney Place

In China, Economics on 15 May 2013 at 8:59 AM

China in Ten Words by Yu Hua

Delaney Place offers a daily email review of books with the hope of spurring debate, discussion and learning. Sales of the book via their website earn charities a donation. In today’s update the book “China in Ten Words” is reviewed. Here author Yu Hua discusses the lopsided growth of China and the high social costs incurred.

“China’s model of growth is to spend 100 yuan to gain 10 yuan in increased GDP. Environmental degradation, moral collapse, the polarization of rich and poor, pervasive corruption — all these things are constantly exacerbating the contradictions in Chinese society.”

To read the review and to elarn more about these daily email updates, go here:

home | www.delanceyplace.com | eclectic excerpts delivered to your email every day from editor Richard Vague.

Thank you Nancy for the recommendation!

In China, One or Two Ghost Cities Isn’t an Issue

In China, Economics on 27 March 2013 at 3:07 PM

Ordos in Inner Mongolia (Photo by Time Magazine)

Nothing gets the attention of someone in Hong Kong like the words “Full breakfast served”. This morning there were hundreds at a session hosted by Michael Page. a leading professional recruitment consultancy (not a client).  Some may have been motivated by the food or the location. The W Hotel in Kowloon is still a trendy destination that merits a trip across the Harbour. Many came because of the hospitality of Michael Page and their newly arrived leader Andy Bentote (thanks for the meal, Andy). Most came for the keynote speaker – Stephen Green, Head of Research, Greater China, Standard Chartered Bank (sadly not a client either).

In a masterful 20 minutes Stephen outlined the reasons he titled the speech “The China Recovery”. Growth predictions for this year and next remain at 8%+. Inflation is likely to make a comeback next year leading to a rise in interest rates. Stephen believes China may be one of the first major countries globally to start lifting interest rates. Exports are on the rise to the USA, even if Europe has troubles. Urban labor demand remains high. And to counter a flat outlook for manufacturing, services in China are growing fast.

But most important – real estate is on the rebound.

Stephen said his peer Jonathan Anderson at UBS calls China’s real estate sector the most important economic index in the universe. Seriously! And why? During construction real estate drives commodity prices – from iron ore in Australia to wood in Brazil. The millions employed in construction drive employment – or not. The crash in construction in 2009 led to a wave of unemployment that sent millions back to their rural villages. Finally completed real estate drives consumption. If you purchase a new unit it no doubt has a car park and is located further from the centre of the city. You’ll need a car (and a toaster, flat screen, quilt set, utensils, furniture…the list goes on).

But what about the ghost towns, like Ordos in Inner Mongolia, pictured above? In a country of 1.2 billion people it’s natural for some pockets of oversupply to exist. The fact there are less than a handful of these sites means it’s not a nationwide issue. Today construction is coming back. In Beijing prices have risen up to 30% because the 2009 construction collapse means there’s not a deep enough supply to meet demand.

Finally Stephen pointed to the 800 pound gorilla in the room whenever someone discusses China’s economy – shadow banking. In reality these are much like traditional banks. They make loans and charge interest rates, then on-sell those securities to investors packaged as wealth management products. China admits non-performing loans account for 2.9% of all loans nationwide. As that is likely under-reported, Stephen Green said an NPL ratio of anything up to 10% is likely to be no reason for concern.

I make light of the depth presented today. Stephen Green presented an excellent economic overview of China that had most in the audience enthralled. There are facts and figures and charts and stats to spare. I could opine on the products in the CPI basket and how pork’s resurgence is a contributor to inflation. I could discuss urbanisation rates of Asian nations and the inflection point where per capita income escalates. And I could discuss the 30 year challenge China faces with land reform.

Suffice it to say, whether it was Michael Page or the free breakfast that got you to the event, it was Stephen Green that kept you locked to your seat. Well done – and thank you all.

Cleaning up outside the public library in Ordos, China.

Q&A With Shaun Rein, Author – “The End of Cheap China”

In China, Economics on 23 January 2013 at 9:28 AM

Shaun Rein, Author, “The End of Cheap China”

The third time I passed “The End of Cheap China” in an airport I bought it. For me reading is an escape so I always select fiction. The prominent placement at the end of the aisle and the bright blue cover drew me in. I was late for a flight (to China) and paid quickly.

It was the best investment I made.

“The End of Cheap China” is the best contemporary book on China available today. Author Shaun Rein draws on countless first-person interviews and reams of data to portray the top-line issues facing China today. Inflation. Education. Food quality. Cost pressures. And even prostitution. All these weave together into a seamless exposé of China today.

Having enjoyed the book I connected with Shaun on Twitter (follow him @shaunrein). His insights were so on target that I had him interviewed for my client CME Group. Their on-line magazine Open Markets has a daily selection of prescient articles on business and economic issues. The article was published yesterday – you can read the full Q&A here:

WHY WE’RE AT THE END OF CHEAP CHINA: Q&A WITH AUTHOR SHAUN REIN

When you’re done reading the article buy the book. It’s worth every Renminbi.

Economist Conferences: Bellwether China – Well Timed, But Well Ventilated?

In China, Economics on 14 January 2013 at 12:04 PM

Yesterday mid-day in Beijing.

I leave tomorrow for Beijing. As usual I’m reviewing to ensure I have the necessary files. I checked in on-line for my flight and confirmed all my appointments. Now I need to rush out and buy a face mask. The surgical masks we have in the office for those suffering flu just won’t do.  Apparently the particles are finer and more pervasive. I need an industrial model.

Our client Economist Conferences is hosting their annual Bellwether China event on Wednesday. This ‘A List’ business event features high profile leaders, such as the keynote address from Zhu Min, Deputy managing director, International Monetary Fund. The event is well attended by leading business professionals, economists, academics, journalists, politicians and more.

(To follow the event on Twitter subscribe to @EC_Bellwether and follow the hashtag #BWChina.)

Thankfully the event is held indoors at The Sheraton Beijing Dongcheng Hotel. (I am doubly thankful as I am a loyal Starwood Preferred Guest member and enjoy their amazing properties every chance I get!) The air pollution levels make any outdoor activities damaging to your health. According to an article in Al Jazeera:

“On Saturday, the US embassy in Beijing, which monitors air quality from its rooftop and publishes pollution levels on a Twitter feed, described the pollution levels as “beyond index”.

Just as an FYI the Air Pollution Index (API) was designed to measure the amounts of particulates in the air. At 300 the index is rated as “Severely Polluted”. Some recordings have API topping out above 900 in Beijing today with no sign of a change any day soon. I’ll have my face mask, sinus tablets and asthma medicine in case I get a “once every five years” attack. 

Just before lunch tomorrow a panel will address the subject, “Will China save the world?”  An all-star line-up of economists and politicians will look at how the growth of China has thrown a lifeline to the rest of the world during the global financial crisis. Timely though will be a focus on the development of China and its own future especially if citizens are confined indoors due to toxic levels of air pollution.

I look forward to the Economist Bellwether China tomorrow in Beijing. I just hope the hotel’s ventilation can cope with the incredible strain of record-level pollution.

Al Jazeera’s comparison of Beijing with Chicago

Trapped Indoors? Tweet! Weibo Traffic Explodes

This weekend saw a dramatic increase in traffic on China’s main micro-blogging site, Sina Weibo (equivalent to Twitter). People normally out and about for the weekend were locked indoors with little to do. The comments on air pollution were trending well above normal.

US to Lose #1 Economic Ranking to China by 2030: Study

In China, Economics on 12 December 2012 at 12:35 PM

New Flag of China?

From CNBC - Published: Tuesday, 11 Dec 2012 | 2:19 PM ET

A new assessment of global trends by The National Intelligence Council predicts that the U.S. will lose its place as the world’s top economy by 2030. If China’s GDP continues growing at its current pace, the republic will become the lead economic power within the next 20 years.

But the study also says China will not overtake the U.S. as the global hegemon. The era of the “one nation to rule them all” mentality will end: for the first time since WWII the U.S. will belong to a multi-polar world.

The study goes on to suggest that a growing political partnership between the U.S. and China will be essential in ensuring global security. China’s military will increase alongside its economy and the U.S. will be forced to relinquish some of its power as the world’s largest military force. It will be up to the U.S. and China to work collaboratively to prevent imminent global disasters.

By 2030, 15 countries including Afghanistan and Pakistan will be at high risk for state failure and terrorists will become more sophisticated in their attacks, taking down entire power grids and large pieces of infrastructure according to the study.

China’s rising middle class will continue to grow and gain access to communications technology and healthcare. This highly educated middle class will want to collaborate with the United States instead of fight against them, the study predicts. Unlike Russia, the Chinese are much more accepting of U.S. intelligence reports, assessments, and collaborations.

America will no longer lead the world single-handedly by 2030 but the country will achieve an energy surplus that will allow it to assume independence from OPEC and boost its natural gas and oil exports. Shale extraction will be a breakout industry for the U.S. in the coming decade.

The study also says that developing nations such as Brazil, India, Colombia, Nigeria, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey “will become especially important to the global economy.

When will ‘Made in China’ be as good as ‘Made in Japan’?

In China, Economics on 17 August 2012 at 9:51 AM

Now this tag carries cachet. That wasn’t always the case.

When I was in elementary school we went on a field trip to the Philadelphia Museum of Art. I recall vividly one composition artwork, done in the style of a Degas reclining nude female. From a distance you saw the woman, her face, her torso, her curves. But as you got closer you saw the hundreds and hundreds of pieces that were glued together to make the portrait. Each was small, plastic, disposable and made in Japan. The artwork was titled “Made in Japan.” (Note to readers – anyone with better Google skills might be able to locate an image. The results I got were bizarre and unintended.)

The tour guide told us kids that ‘Made in Japan’ used to mean bad. It was shorthand for cheap and disposable. This was in the early days of Japan’s post-war recovery. Anyone growing up in the 1950s and 1960s probably has the same strong association.

In later years the nation invested heavily in quality improvements for process innovation (where you find cheaper and better ways of making the same thing). Japan also led in research and development to bring true innovation – from CDs to Walkmen to all things electronic. Sadly that innovation waned int he last decade and former electronic powerhouses Pioneer, Sharp and Sony have all become loss leaders.

Today, even without a visit to an art museum, children will have life-long associations of ‘Made in China’ as cheap and disposable.

China has made never-before-witnessed progress in developing its economy and enriching its population. Low-cost labour and unheralded process innovation means global consumers have much greater purchasing power. What used to cost $10 now costs $3. Thanks, China!

Can we make Ken any cheaper?

At the same time the drive to suck costs out of every part of the manufacture has led to serious quality problems and unacceptable conditions for workers.  Eric Clark wrote The Real Toy Story, an in-depth book on the toy industry in China - an extract is here.

Now we are seeing illegal shortcuts that mean faulty or fake products. Just this month a national network of fake pharmaceuticals was uncovered, with police arresting 2,000 people (More on ABC Online). And while we may stomach a doctored Viagra tablet, in this case even chemotherapy products were falsified, containing one time only salt water.  Pfizer said the counterfeits can cause massive health problems:

“We’ve seen where there’s been medicines produced that have no active ingredient whatsoever or way over the prescribed amount of active ingredient,” said Scott Davis, Senior regional director in the global security division of Pfizer.

Clearly China needs to reinvent itself. The drive for profitability has led to cost-cutting beyond what is rational. American buyers need to partner better to ensure acceptable living standards for workers. And that means higher prices for consumers.

In the end it will be up to China to invest in innovation, research, development, quality control and more. Japan saw its competitive disadvantage as the world demanded higher quality. And many, many major Chinese companies are doing just that. They are challenged by the lowest common denominator.

Every time we read of fakes or purchase low quality products, the brand ‘Made in China’ sinks lower in our esteem.

When will this brand inspire confidence?

 

 

 

 

 

In the USA it’s Corn. In Asia it’s Rice. Food Prices are on the Rise

In America, China, Economics, Public Affairs on 14 August 2012 at 9:50 AM

The drought hitting America has devastated corn crops. The US government has reduced estimates for corn production for the second month in a row. This is a direct effect of the record-setting heat wave that has blasted the corn-producing states this summer. Overall yield will be 13% below last year contributing to a price rise in corn and related products.

Corn Drought 2012 (source: Up2Date News)

As the USA is the world’s largest exporter of corn, food prices worldwide should feel the impact. Corn has become a key ingredient in foodstuff as diverse as pizza to chewing gum. If you wanted to live a corn-free life you would need to avoid a long list of products and ingredients.

Corn is also key in the production of beef, pork and chicken. Those key sources of protein are also expected to increase in price due to the shortage of corn feed. This will be particularly problematic for China, which sees historic rises in corn prices directly linked to price rises for meat.

Previously, Société Générale noted that meat prices inflation in China appears to be quite correlated with the changes in global corn price.  The chart below shows a longer time series of year-on-year changes of corn price and meat price inflation, according to ALSO SPRACH ANALYST

Global Corn Prices and China’s Meat Prices

In Asia, a decrease in rice production is contributing to a projected 10% increase in cost for this staple. While the USA is a rice exporter, the reasons for the shortage in Asia are different. A poor monsoon season in India caused production to fall. Thailand has provided subsidies to farmers, making its rice crop too expensive to export.

Rice Stockpile

The increase in global food prices comes at a poor time for most Asian nations. Across the region economies are performing poorly. National budgets are under strain with reduced revenue. Individuals are less able to weather large price increases for basic foodstuffs.

“You’re going to see the ripple of this go out for quite a distance,” said Rick Whitacre, a professor of agricultural economics at Illinois State University.

And while Whitacre is predicting ripples across the cost of numerous foodstuffs, the ripples are likely to spread further. In 2007-2008 an increase in food prices led to food riots in over 25 countries. Protesters then gathered to express frustration at double-digit increases in the cost of rice and wheat, yet their aggravations spilled over to other areas of discontent. This led to the collapse of the government of Haiti.

We are still not through the summer, and the harvests of corn and rice may still surprise some. Yet we can expect a year of increased food prices and public discontent. How and where this plays out is anyone’s guess. But it has leaders of Asian nations on alert as they seek to ensure the basics for their populations.

Food line in Pakistan (Source: Foreign Policy)

Media Landscape in 2012: Navigating in the Era of Content

In Economics, Social Media on 19 July 2012 at 12:01 PM

Media Landscape in 2012 – Click to access slides

Today I gave the opening speech at Pacific ConferencesMedia Relations in the Digital Age” event here in Hong Kong. This two day event covers topics near and dear to the hearts of professional communicators. How do we engage social media commentators? How do you manage your company’s reputation in social media?

My speech had to cover the future of traditional media, and how to start social media programs. The slides are available by clicking the image above or on my page on SlideShare.

“The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated,” said Mark Twain.

Imagine the fire if they’d chosen cremation!

For many the death watch for newspapers continues unabated. Newspaper Death Watch (“Chronicling the Decline of Newspapers and the Rebirth of Journalism”) is a blog marking the demise of every newspaper. The photo above was published three years ago in the blog Idea Peepshow where the author Andy D. said we want news all the time and for free:

“Information is becoming more universal and an inherent right of all people, meaning newer generations are being born into a sense of entitlement: They don’t think they should pay, or wait, for their information.”

I also talked about the rise of non-traditional news sources, and recounted “watching” the Chilean miners emerge from darkness via Twitter. It wasn’t until colleagues suggested I try television that I remembered I could watch the imagery as well.

This week The South China Morning Post ran a story that more were turning to YouTube as a source of news, especially when stories had strong visual elements. Many seek a closer, CCTV-style eye on current affairs such as this well-viewed compilation of Japan tsunami videos.

In short – quality journalism will never die. The smaller daily newspapers will be pressed harder and harder and many will fail. But citizen journalists will never be able to cover the global issues of interest in our native language with the same precision and quality of established news sources. But they can give them a run for their money!

And for the next generation – even if we want our content on-line, we’ll still need quality contributors who can produce that content. Got that baby?

Heavy Suitcases: China Pledges US$43 Billion to IMF

In China, Economics on 20 June 2012 at 1:46 PM

Hu Jintao is leaving Mexico lighter than when he arrived. As expected he stumped up significantly when the IMF (International Monetary Fund) passed the hat. To support a bailout rescue fund for Europe, China pledged US$43 billion.

Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Manmahon Singh, China’s Hu Jintao and South Africa’s Jacob Zuma

The injection of cash at an opportune time will help China realise its goal of achieving greater influence in world dialogue.  The photo above shows the leaders of “emerging” or developing nations. Between them they represent a significant percentage of the world’s population. And when it comes to strong economies you can’t go past them.

The “Old World” order led by Britain, America, Germany and France has a disproportionate share of challenges. And while it may not be easy-going for these “New World” leaders, its time for them to assume the mantel of influence that is due given their strong contribution to the world economy.

 

Is China Driving Australia to Prosperity and The Brink of Ruin?

In Australia, China, Economics on 19 June 2012 at 6:19 PM

Bestseller Down Under

In winter lounge rooms across Australia right now, many are huddled over “The Australian Moment” by George Megalogenis. In it this journalist for The Australian explains the challenges ahead for Australia’s two-speed economy. Mining has added 60,000 jobs. Retail has lost 50,000.

He also explains why the nation is best placed to handle the challenges of the economic challenges ahead.

“There’s no better place to be during economic turbulence than Australia. Brilliant in a bust, we’ve learnt to use our brains in a boom. Despite a lingering inability to acknowledge our achievements at home, the rest of the world asks: how did we get it right?” (The Australian Moment by GEORGE MEGALOGENIS)

Today Australia is the world’s biggest market for GE. But their country leader Steve Sargent said it isn’t a demand from within the country that drives GE’s business:

“Remember it’s not Australians buying what we produce; ultimately it’s 3bn people north-west of here,” he says. “If developing Asia is the growth engine of the global economy then mineral-rich Australia provides the fuel.” (Source: “Mine, All Mine” by Neil Hume for The Financial Times)

That fuel is making it expensive for everyday Australians.

The Australian dollar has become a proxy for mineral prices. What’s that mean? If you think minerals will increase in value and you’re not sure whether to buy shares in BP or Rio Tinto, or whether to invest in commodity futures, you can always buy Australian dollars. So long as Australia’s mining boom continues then the dollar will stay relatively high to the world’s currencies.

That’s great news for investors. It’s terrible news to hotels reliant on overseas tourists – Australia’s now a very, very expensive place to visit. It’s bad news for property developers as overseas investors find the premium on homes too much to afford. And don’t even talk about manufacturing. If taxes and wages and regulations didn’t already strangle those businesses, then the high relative cost of good priced in Australian dollars will.

But the boom keeps on…booming.

Mineral and mining production has increased exponentially year on year. That means those with engineering or mechanical skills can quickly increase their salaries. It’s not easy for anyone with a home and family in Sydney or Melbourne. The high-pay mining jobs are all located out West – usually in remote communities.

Having lived in Australia for 12 years (in two installments of 6 years each), I can attest to the high cost of living there. I paid a world record AU$5 for a bottle of water at the airport in Launceston, Tasmania (HK$40 or US$6). Here in Hong Kong I find the day-to-day expenses much more reasonable – from groceries to electricity to water and cable television. Both Hong Kong and Australia have expensive property. After that this is a more affordable place (at least it feels that way).

The two-speed economy places many Australian households “on the brink.” Anecdotal evidence from friends and former neighbours shows repossessions have increased, job losses are more frequent and many find it hard to get by. In little over a year they’ll be able to vent their frustration as a national poll is due before November 2013.

Until then they can reflect on the blessing and curse that China is giving Australia. The insatiable demand for minerals is leading to the rapid wealth for many – and the slow decline of others.

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